ESPN FPI projections for every game on South Carolina's schedule (2024)

Win probability: 87.3 percent

FPI rank: NR
AP rank: NR
Coaches Poll: NR

Game date: Aug. 31

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: It will be the first time South Carolina and Old Dominion have met on the gridiron. Thegame, which was announced in July of 2020, will result in a $1.5 million payout from South Carolina. At the time of the announcement, it was set to be the largest payout for Old Dominion in its program's history.

Last season, Old Dominion finished with a record of 6-7 (6-3 Sun Belt). Coach Ricky Rahne has an overall record of 15-23 during his three seasons with the Monarchs.

Win probability: 44.3 percent

FPI rank: 34
AP rank: Received votes
Coaches Poll: Received votes

Game date: Sept. 7

Location: Lexington, Ky.

Series history: It's nice to see at least one SEC East rival is still on the schedule this season, especially this one, because it's developed into a fun rivalry. South Carolina leads the all-time series, 20-14-1. The Gameco*cks have wins in each ofthe last two matchups, including the 2022 game in Lexington, 24-14.

This matchupcould be a pivotal one for a South Carolina team that will be an underdog in most of its game this season, including this one. A win could go a long way in helping the Gameco*cks improve on last year's 5-7 record.

Win probability: 37 percent

FPI rank: 10
AP rank:
Coaches Poll:

Game date: Sept. 14

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: South Carolina and LSU are meeting for the first time since 2020, Will Muschamp's final season as head coach of the Gameco*cks. The Tigers won that night in Baton Rouge, 52-24, thanks to a strong performance by freshman quarterback TJ Finley, who transferred to Auburn then Texas State, before landing at Western Kentucky for the upcomingseason.

Anyway, LSU has a pretty significant lead all-time. South Carolina is 2-19-1. The last time the Gameco*cks didn't lose a game to the Tigers was in 1995 when the teams tied, 20-20.

Win probability: 92.2 percent

FPI rank: 128
AP rank: NR
Coaches Poll: NR

Game date: Sept. 21

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: The only time these two teams have played was in 2018. South Carolina won that Dec. 1 showdown, 28-3.On the original schedule, South Carolina was supposed to play Marshall, but a September hurricane forced a change in plans. Akron also had an opening on its schedule when its first game of the season (Nebraska) was cancelled because of bad weather.

This game was pretty dang messy, too.South Carolina had four turnovers, two of which were red zone interceptions by Jake Bentley. Akron lost three of its six total fumbles. According to the Associated Press, in 17 second-half drives, 10 ended in punts, four ended on downs, two ended in lost fumbles. It was cold, rainy and the bottom was starting to fall out on Muschamp's tenure.

Win probability: 43 percent

FPI rank: 16
AP rank: 6
Coaches Poll: 6

Game date: Oct. 5

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: The stakes are little higher for this one, considering who'sat Ole Miss now after spending the last two seasons at South Carolina. Interestingly enough, Juice Wells was at James Madison the last time South Carolina played Ole Miss. Muschamp was the head coach still, though not for much longer. He got fired a day after the Rebels rolled to a 59-42 win in Oxford, which featured a Lane Kiffin call sheet toss into the stands at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

The Gameco*cks won three-straight (2008, 2009, 2018) before falling in 2020. They're 8-9 all-time against the Rebels.This will be the first time since 2009 that these two teams have played in Columbia.

Win probability: 13.8 percent

FPI rank: 5
AP rank: 5
Coaches Poll: 5

Game date: Oct. 12

Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Series history: Ryan Hilinski started at quarterback for South Carolina the last time they played Alabama. The Crimson Tide won that afternoon, 47-23, to avenge that 2010 upset win by the Gameco*cks. A lot has changed for both teams since they last metfive years ago.

All-time, Alabama leads the series 13-3, with all three of South Carolina's wins coming in this century. The Gameco*cks will get a crack at first-year coach Kalen DeBoer at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It will be the first time thetwo teams have played there since 2009, when the Crimson Tide won, 20-9.

Win probability: 18.7 percent

FPI rank: 8
AP rank: 16
Coaches Poll: 16

Game date: Oct. 19

Location: Norman, Okla.

Series history: Beamer coached tight ends at Oklahoma, before he was named South Carolina's head coach. Gameco*cks backup quarterbackDavis Bevilleplayed for the Sooners before he transferred in. Brent Venables, who's now the head coach in Norman, was Clemson's defensive coordinator for a while.

Beyond that, these two programs have zero history. Thiswill be the first time they've met on the football field, though South Carolina is 1-1 all-time against Oklahoma State though. However, itwillhave been more than 40 years since they played, by the time this game happens.

Win probability: 43.1 percent

FPI rank: 14
AP rank: 20
Coaches Poll: 20

Game date: Nov. 2

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: Xavier Legette ran back a kickoff for touchdown in South Carolina's only win over Texas A&M. The Aggies are 9-1 in the all-time series, with their only loss to the Gameco*cks coming in that2022 game. There's a new coach in College Station now, and Legette is playing for the Carolina Panthers.

This early November matchup will come on the heels of a much-needed by week for the Gameco*cks, who have a couple of tough road games on the October schedule.

Win probability: 66 percent

FPI rank: 76
AP rank: NR
Coaches Poll: NR

Game date: Nov. 9

Location: Nashville, Tenn.

Series history: This will probably be the only SEC game that South Carolina isn't the underdog. The Gameco*cks lead the all-time series, 29-4. They've won every game since 2009.

With an all-time record of 9-27, is Clark Lea on the hot seat? Things have continuedto go south for Vanderbilt's third-year head coach. South Carolina needs to make sure that continues on Nov. 9, because the following week will provide quite the challenge.

Win probability: 33.2 percent

FPI rank: 10
AP rank: 11
Coaches Poll: 11

Game date: Nov. 16

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: The other Tigers coach Gameco*ck fans love to hate will travel to this Columbia, looking to make it six-straight for Missouri. Some of the worst games South Carolina has played over the last five seasons were against this team and/or Eli Drinkwitz, who coached Appalachian State to an upset win in Williams-Brice game in 2019;.

Win probability: 94.2 percent

FPI rank: NR
AP rank: NR
Coaches Poll: NR

Game date: Nov. 23

Location: Columbia, S.C.

Series history: South Carolina is 20-4 all-time against Wofford. The Terriers haven't beaten the Gameco*cks since 1917. They last played in 2017.

In two seasons as head coach, Shawn Watson has a 5-12 record at Wofford. They went 2-9 (2-6 Southern) in 2023. This should be a nice tuneup game before South Carolina heads back to the Upstate for a showdown with Clemson. It's very possible this game could clinch a bowl trip for the Gameco*cks.

Win probability: 29.6 percent

FPI rank: 15
AP rank: 14
Coaches Poll: 14

Game date: Nov. 30

Location: Clemson, S.C.

Series history: South Carolina trails the all-time series, 43-73-4. The Gameco*cks did win the last time they met in Pickens County though. Clemson won last season in Columbia, without scoring an offensive touchdown.

The stakes of this game could be huge, especially if South Carolina isstill looking to lock up bowl eligibility. There are 11 other games on Clemson's schedule, of course, but another loss at home to the Gameco*cks could force some sort of a change in philosophy for Dabo Swinney, especially if transfers play pivotal parts like they did in 2022.

On the flip side, a South Carolina loss could have serious implications for Beamer.